# H3 — Persistence of characterisation across a context window

## Hypothesis (H3)

A characterisation induced by Document A measurably shifts the model's treatment of a later, neutral Document B by the same party, within one context window. The cross-party control distinguishes an **entity-bound** characterisation (attached to the party) from a generic context 'halo'.

## Setup

- model: `Qwen/Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct` (quant `4bit`)
- 60 two-document items; Document B is identical across conditions
- conditions: credible-A, not-credible-A, no-A, A/B **order-swapped** controls, and **cross-party** controls (A characterises a different party than B's author)

## Judgments on identical Document B (CIs)

| condition | mean_rating | ci_lo | ci_hi | n_scored |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| credible_A | 4.283 | 4.016 | 4.550 | 60 |
| notcredible_A | 1.267 | 1.150 | 1.400 | 60 |
| no_A | 5.267 | 5.067 | 5.467 | 60 |
| credible_A_swapped | 6.050 | 5.767 | 6.283 | 60 |
| notcredible_A_swapped | 1.183 | 1.067 | 1.317 | 60 |
| credible_A_other | 3.133 | 2.967 | 3.300 | 60 |
| notcredible_A_other | 4.267 | 3.917 | 4.600 | 60 |

![persistence](figures/h3_persistence.png)

## Effects and controls

- **Main effect** (credible-A − not-credible-A, same party): Δ = +3.017, permutation p = 0.000
- **Cross-party control** (A about a different party): Δ_other = -1.133; same-vs-other permutation p = 0.000 ⇒ party_specific = **True**. If Δ_other ≈ Δ_same, the persistence is context bleed, not a characterisation of the party.
- **Order-swap control** (B before A): Δ = +4.867, permutation p = 0.000. Forward order already rules out mere recency by construction (the identical B is the most recent document before the question); the swap shows how much recency amplifies the effect.

## Result

**Verdict: ✅ SUPPORTED** — Party-bound characterisation persists: A's characterisation shifts the judgment on identical B (Δ=+3.02, permutation p=0.000), and the shift is significantly larger when A concerns the SAME party as B's author than a different party (Δ_same=+3.02 vs Δ_other=-1.13, p=0.000) — evidence of an entity-level characterisation, not generic context bleed. Forward order rules out mere recency by construction (the identical B is the most recent document); the swap control (Δ=+4.87) shows recency amplifies but does not explain the effect.
